Minor Economic App of Program from last Post

(THIS EMAIL REFERS TO THE PROGRAM IN THE LAST BLOG POST)


Did you ever read about how some markets can't equalize that well?

For instance, farmers (in England, before massive subsidies) always produced too much or little since information wasn't that good and there were inherently unknowable factors? (weather, war, etc.)

In a program I just wrote I used really simple math, REALLY SIMPLE simple addition, but I think the premise could be used to illustrate the unknowable factors and the associated difficulties in market equalizing.

The program had the computer use random integers to try to find a sequence that added up to 6.
If the sum of the sequence went above 6, the computer got to remove the last integer, until the sum of the sequence was below 6.
If we are using little numbers to find the sequence, the little numbers could represent a world where every factor is a mostly knowable factor.
(For instance, Farmers know they'll need x seeds, y acres of land, z tractors, etc.) Consider arriving at "6" to be an equalization of the market.
In this scenario the computer executes and we get:

[1]
[1, 2]
[1, 2, 2]
[1, 2, 2, 3] (EXCESS 1)
[1, 2, 2]
[1, 2, 2, 2] (EXCESS 2)
[1, 2, 2]
[1, 2, 2, 3] (EXCESS 3)
[1, 2, 2]
[1, 2, 2, 1] (FOUND IT!!!)

So, the computer went in excess 3 times, and then found the solution. Metaphorically, the market equalized.


Now, let's introduce some bigger, less knowable factors into the farmers wheat market.
War, drought, alien invasion, these are bigger factors then minor weather changes or minor increases in labor prices. So, they'll be represented by higher numbers. The minor factors are still there, but now they're accompanied by those aforementioned bigger factors.
So, instead of just minor factors represented by the integers [1,2,3], our new list will be [1,2,3,4,5] (4 and 5 representing the new huge factors).
Look how long it takes our market to equalize this time.

[2]
[2, 5]
[2]
[2, 5]
[2]
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 3] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 5] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 3] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 4] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 3] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 5] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 5] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 4] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 3] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 3] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 4] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 2] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 4] (EXCESS)
[2, 3]
[2, 3, 1] (FOUND IT!!!!!)


In a world of much less perfect information, markets did a HORRIBLE job of equalizing.